Flavio Cobolli and Miomir Kecmanovic meet in the round of 64 at Cincinnati on Saturday. Flavio Cobolli has dropped 3 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Miomir Kecmanovic is 5-5 across recent matches.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Cobolli is exactly that — a lean.