Thursday's Cincinnati quarterfinal pits Flavio Cobolli against Tommy Paul on hard. Tommy Paul brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten. Flavio Cobolli brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten.

Tommy Paul simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Paul comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Paul gets the nod on the finest of margins.