A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Frances Tiafoe goes up against Lorenzo Musetti in the Vienna round of 32. Frances Tiafoe is 7-3 across recent matches. Lorenzo Musetti limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.

Frances Tiafoe is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Tiafoe around 55%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Tiafoe is exactly that — a lean.