Monday's Cincinnati round of 64 pits Frances Tiafoe against Lorenzo Sonego on hard. Frances Tiafoe is 8-2 across recent matches. Lorenzo Sonego comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.

Frances Tiafoe is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Tiafoe around 63%. The edge belongs to Tiafoe — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.