Tuesday's US Open first round pits Frances Tiafoe against Martin Damm on hard. Frances Tiafoe is 7-3 across recent matches. Martin Damm comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.

Frances Tiafoe is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Tiafoe around 60%. Tiafoe should have enough here, though Damm has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.