US Open · R128 · Hard · best of 5 · Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM UTC
Frances Tiafoe vs. Martin Damm — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · September 1, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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Tuesday's US Open first round pits Frances Tiafoe against Martin Damm on hard. Frances Tiafoe is 7-3 across recent matches. Martin Damm comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Frances Tiafoe is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Tiafoe around 60%. Tiafoe should have enough here, though Damm has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
The numbers behind the pick
Our number vs the market
Maiden-153(60.5% Tiafoe)
Market-318(76.1% Tiafoe)
Sources: . These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
Surface ratings
Hard rating
Frances Tiafoe
1936
Martin Damm
1723
Overall rating
Frances Tiafoe
1998
Martin Damm
1723
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Frances Tiafoe
Martin Damm
1st serve in
59.5%
61.5%
1st serve points won
72.4%
77.3%
2nd serve points won
52%
51.8%
Form
Frances Tiafoe
7–3
Martin Damm
4–6
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
Who is predicted to win Frances Tiafoe vs Martin Damm?
Maiden gives Frances Tiafoe a 60% chance to beat Martin Damm in the US Open first round on September 1, 2026.
How confident is the Frances Tiafoe pick?
60% is a “Confident” tier pick. When we make a pick around 60%, picks in that range have won 58% of the time (151 so far). See the track record page for the full table.