Friday's Shanghai round of 64 pits Frances Tiafoe against Yannick Hanfmann on hard. Frances Tiafoe has won 7 of the last 10. Yannick Hanfmann comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

Frances Tiafoe simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Tiafoe.