Wednesday's Ljubljana round of 16 pits Francesca Jones against Mona Barthel on clay. Francesca Jones is 9-1 across recent matches. Mona Barthel limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.

Francesca Jones simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Jones comes in off a compressed schedule; Barthel comes in off a compressed schedule. Barthel needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.