Thursday's Olbia round of 16 pits Francesco Maestrelli against Maxim Mrva on hard. Francesco Maestrelli has won 5 of the last 10. Maxim Mrva has won 7 of the last 10.

The serve is where this match separates: Maestrelli has been winning 69.9% of first-serve points to Mrva's 63.7%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Maestrelli is exactly that — a lean.