Tuesday's Lisbon round of 32 pits Francesco Passaro against Gastao Elias on clay. Francesco Passaro is rolling — 5 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play. Gastao Elias is searching for form, having lost 6 in a row (2 of the last 10).

Francesco Passaro is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Passaro around 76%. Elias needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.