A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Francisca Jorge goes up against Xinyu Gao in the Caldas da Rainha round of 32. Xinyu Gao limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Francisca Jorge limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.

Xinyu Gao is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Gao around 56%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Gao is exactly that — a lean.