A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Francisco Cerundolo goes up against Nuno Borges in the Cincinnati round of 64. Francisco Cerundolo has dropped 3 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten. Nuno Borges has won 7 of the last 10.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Cerundolo is exactly that — a lean.