Santa Cruz 2 · QF · Clay · best of 3 · Oct 16, 2026, 8:10 PM UTC
Franco Roncadelli vs Manuel La Serna Juan — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · October 16, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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Franco Roncadelli and Manuel La Serna Juan meet in the quarterfinal at Santa Cruz 2 on Friday. Manuel La Serna Juan comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Franco Roncadelli comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 63.1% versus 58.8% on first-serve points in Juan's favor. Roncadelli comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Juan fractionally more likely to land the big points.
The numbers behind the pick
Win probability & fair price
Maiden-107(51.7% Juan)
Surface ratings
Clay rating
Franco Roncadelli
1567
Manuel La Serna Juan
1575
Overall rating
Franco Roncadelli
1577
Manuel La Serna Juan
1571
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Franco Roncadelli
Manuel La Serna Juan
1st serve in
75.2%
66.7%
1st serve points won
58.8%
63.1%
2nd serve points won
49.2%
48.8%
Form
Franco Roncadelli
5–5
Manuel La Serna Juan
5–5
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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Who is predicted to win Franco Roncadelli vs Manuel La Serna Juan?
Maiden gives Manuel La Serna Juan a 52% chance to beat Franco Roncadelli in the Santa Cruz 2 quarterfinal on October 16, 2026.
How confident is the Manuel La Serna Juan pick?
52% is a “Lean” tier pick. When we make a pick around 52%, picks in that range have won 56% of the time (580 so far). See the track record page for the full table.