Tuesday's Todi round of 32 pits Gabriele Piraino against Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo on clay. Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Gabriele Piraino has won 5 in a row and 5 of the last 10 overall.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Izquierdo fractionally more likely to land the big points.