Gael Monfils and Learner Tien meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Thursday. Learner Tien is 6-4 across recent matches. Gael Monfils limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.

Learner Tien is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Tien around 68%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Tien.