Thursday's Cincinnati first round pits Gael Monfils against Rinky Hijikata on hard. Gael Monfils comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Rinky Hijikata limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.

Gael Monfils is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Monfils around 60%. The edge belongs to Monfils — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.