Wednesday's Bastad round of 16 pits Grigor Dimitrov against Nuno Borges on clay. Grigor Dimitrov is 6-4 across recent matches. Nuno Borges is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10).
They have split their 2 previous meetings evenly at 1-1.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Dimitrov fractionally more likely to land the big points.
The numbers behind the pick
Serve
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Grigor Dimitrov | Nuno Borges |
|---|
| 1st serve in | 63.1% | 66.2% |
| 1st serve points won | 73.6% | 72.2% |
| 2nd serve points won | 48.9% | 51.9% |
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
What Pro unlocksTomorrow's card, before the first ball
One email each morning with the day's free picks in full, tennis included, published before play starts and graded afterwards. Our nine-chapter beginner's guide to prediction markets comes with it, free. Unsubscribe anytime.