Curitiba · SF · Clay · best of 3 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:30 PM UTC
Gustavo Heide vs. Pedro Boscardin Dias — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · October 3, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Gustavo Heide goes up against Pedro Boscardin Dias in the Curitiba semifinal. Gustavo Heide has won 4 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall. Pedro Boscardin Dias has won 3 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall.
Heide's 71.6% behind the first serve (against 65.5% for Dias) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Heide comes in off a compressed schedule; Dias comes in off a compressed schedule. Dias needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
The numbers behind the pick
Our number vs the market
Maiden-314(75.8% Heide)
Market-343(77.4% Heide)
Sources: Market price (via our tennis data provider). These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
Surface ratings
Clay rating
Gustavo Heide
1809
Pedro Boscardin Dias
1576
Overall rating
Gustavo Heide
1798
Pedro Boscardin Dias
1586
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Gustavo Heide
Pedro Boscardin Dias
1st serve in
56.4%
59%
1st serve points won
71.6%
65.5%
2nd serve points won
52.8%
47%
Form
Gustavo Heide
8–2
Pedro Boscardin Dias
6–4
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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Who is predicted to win Gustavo Heide vs Pedro Boscardin Dias?
Maiden gives Gustavo Heide a 76% chance to beat Pedro Boscardin Dias in the Curitiba semifinal on October 3, 2026.
How confident is the Gustavo Heide pick?
76% is a “Strong” tier pick. When we make a pick around 76%, picks in that range have won 75% of the time (91 so far). See the track record page for the full table.