Harriet Dart won 3-6 6-2 6-4
We got this one wrong. Our final number was 67% on Paula Badosa; Harriet Dart won 3-6 6-2 6-4.
Friday's Guangzhou quarterfinal pits Harriet Dart against Paula Badosa on hard. Paula Badosa is 6-4 across recent matches. Harriet Dart has won 5 of the last 10.
Paula Badosa is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Badosa around 67%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Badosa.
Hard rating
Overall rating
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Harriet Dart | Paula Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| 1st serve in | 55.8% | 60.6% |
| 1st serve points won | 63.8% | 65% |
| 2nd serve points won | 44.5% | 44.9% |
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
What Pro unlocksOne email each morning with the day's free picks in full, tennis included, published before play starts and graded afterwards. Our nine-chapter beginner's guide to prediction markets comes with it, free. Unsubscribe anytime.