A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Harriet Dart goes up against Peyton Stearns in the Cincinnati first round. Peyton Stearns limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Harriet Dart has won 4 of the last 10.

Peyton Stearns is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Stearns around 68%. The edge belongs to Stearns — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.