Harry Wendelken and Luciano Darderi meet in the first round at US Open on Monday. Luciano Darderi is 5-5 across recent matches. Harry Wendelken has dropped 6 straight and sits at 1-9 over the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Darderi — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.