Tuesday's Guangzhou round of 32 pits Hayato Matsuoka against Yibing Wu on hard. Yibing Wu is 4-6 across recent matches. Hayato Matsuoka is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (5 of the last 10).

Yibing Wu is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Wu around 74%. Matsuoka needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.