Henri Squire and Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida meet in the round of 16 at Bonn on Thursday. Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida is 8-2 across recent matches. Henri Squire is rolling — 3 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Almeida is exactly that — a lean.