A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Holger Rune goes up against Kyrian Jacquet in the Tokyo round of 32. Holger Rune is rolling — 4 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Kyrian Jacquet is 4-6 across recent matches.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Rune gets the nod on the finest of margins.