A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Holger Rune goes up against Quentin Halys in the Basel round of 32. Holger Rune limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 7 wins in 10. Quentin Halys has won 4 of the last 10.

Holger Rune simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Rune fractionally more likely to land the big points.