A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Hubert Hurkacz goes up against Martin Damm in the Chengdu round of 16. Hubert Hurkacz has won 7 of the last 10. Martin Damm is 4-6 across recent matches.

Hubert Hurkacz simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Hurkacz.