Friday's Cincinnati first round pits Hubert Hurkacz against Sho Shimabukuro on hard. Hubert Hurkacz is 6-4 across recent matches. Sho Shimabukuro limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.

Hold strength tells the story — 76% versus 70.6% on first-serve points in Hurkacz's favor. Shimabukuro needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.