Saturday's Cincinnati round of 64 pits Hubert Hurkacz against Tommy Paul on hard. Tommy Paul comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Hubert Hurkacz is 6-4 across recent matches.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Hurkacz comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Paul gets the nod on the finest of margins.