A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Hugo Gaston goes up against Sho Shimabukuro in the Hangzhou round of 32. Hugo Gaston limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10. Sho Shimabukuro is 3-7 across recent matches.

Hugo Gaston simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Gaston fractionally more likely to land the big points.