Hugo Grenier and Marvin Moeller meet in the round of 32 at Taranto (Italy) on Tuesday. Hugo Grenier is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (3 of the last 10). Marvin Moeller comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 71.6% versus 67.8% on first-serve points in Grenier's favor. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Grenier fractionally more likely to land the big points.
The numbers behind the pick
Our number vs the market
Maiden-128(56.1% Grenier)
Market-144(59.0% Grenier)
Sources: Market price (via our tennis data provider). These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
Surface ratings
Hard rating
Hugo Grenier
1560
Marvin Moeller
1379
Overall rating
Hugo Grenier
1566
Marvin Moeller
1622
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Hugo Grenier
Marvin Moeller
1st serve in
64.1%
59.5%
1st serve points won
71.6%
67.8%
2nd serve points won
46.9%
48.2%
Form
Hugo Grenier
3–7
Marvin Moeller
5–5
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
One email each morning with the day's free picks in full, tennis included, published before play starts and graded afterwards. Our nine-chapter beginner's guide to prediction markets comes with it, free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Who is predicted to win Hugo Grenier vs Marvin Moeller?
Maiden gives Hugo Grenier a 56% chance to beat Marvin Moeller in the Taranto (Italy) round of 32 on November 3, 2026.
How confident is the Hugo Grenier pick?
56% is a “Lean” tier pick. When we make a pick around 56%, picks in that range have won 63% of the time (643 so far). See the track record page for the full table.