Wednesday's Beijing round of 16 pits Iga Swiatek against Iva Jovic on hard. Iga Swiatek is 8-2 across recent matches. Iva Jovic brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten.

Iga Swiatek simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Swiatek comes in off a compressed schedule; Jovic comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Swiatek.