Cincinnati · SF · Hard · best of 3 · Aug 22, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC

Iga Swiatek vs. Jessica Pegula — result and pick review

By The Maiden Desk · August 22, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

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Result

✗ Pick wrong

Jessica Pegula won 7-5 4-6 6-4

We got this one wrong. Our final number was 51% on Iga Swiatek; Jessica Pegula won 7-5 4-6 6-4.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Iga Swiatek goes up against Jessica Pegula in the Cincinnati semifinal. Iga Swiatek has won 9 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall. Jessica Pegula brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Swiatek is exactly that — a lean.

The numbers behind the pick

Surface ratings

Hard rating

Iga Swiatek

2075

Jessica Pegula

2074

Overall rating

Iga Swiatek

2105

Jessica Pegula

2115

Serve

Serve (last 52 weeks)	Iga Swiatek	Jessica Pegula
1st serve in	63%	61%
1st serve points won	63.9%	63.7%
2nd serve points won	48.7%	48%

Form

Iga Swiatek

9–1

Jessica Pegula

8–2

The rest of the numbers

This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.

What Pro unlocks

Frequently asked questions

Who won Iga Swiatek vs Jessica Pegula at Cincinnati?: Jessica Pegula won 7-5 4-6 6-4.
Was the Iga Swiatek vs Jessica Pegula prediction correct?: We got this one wrong. Our final number was 51% on Iga Swiatek; Jessica Pegula won 7-5 4-6 6-4.