Wednesday's Wuhan round of 32 pits Iga Swiatek against Magdalena Frech on hard. Iga Swiatek has won 7 of the last 10. Magdalena Frech comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Frech needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.