Wuhan · SF · Hard · best of 3 · Oct 17, 2026, 10:30 AM UTC
Iga Swiatek vs Maja Chwalinska — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · October 17, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Iga Swiatek goes up against Maja Chwalinska in the Wuhan semifinal. Iga Swiatek has won 8 of the last 10. Maja Chwalinska has won 3 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall.
Hold strength tells the story — 63.8% versus 58.2% on first-serve points in Swiatek's favor. If Swiatek plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
The numbers behind the pick
Our number vs the market
Maiden-329(76.7% Swiatek)
Market-471(82.5% Swiatek)
Sources: Market price (via our tennis data provider). These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
Surface ratings
Hard rating
Iga Swiatek
2055
Maja Chwalinska
1774
Overall rating
Iga Swiatek
2093
Maja Chwalinska
1893
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Iga Swiatek
Maja Chwalinska
1st serve in
63.4%
71.1%
1st serve points won
63.8%
58.2%
2nd serve points won
48.3%
47%
Form
Iga Swiatek
8–2
Maja Chwalinska
6–4
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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Who is predicted to win Iga Swiatek vs Maja Chwalinska?
Maiden gives Iga Swiatek a 77% chance to beat Maja Chwalinska in the Wuhan semifinal on October 17, 2026.
How confident is the Iga Swiatek pick?
77% is a “Strong” tier pick. When we make a pick around 77%, picks in that range have won 76% of the time (51 so far). See the track record page for the full table.