Iga Swiatek and Maria Sakkari meet in the round of 32 at Cincinnati on Monday. Iga Swiatek is rolling — 6 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Maria Sakkari is 5-5 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Sakkari needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.