Thursday's US Open round of 64 pits Iga Swiatek against Nadia Podoroska on hard. Iga Swiatek has won 9 of the last 10. Nadia Podoroska is 4-6 across recent matches.

Iga Swiatek simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Podoroska needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.