US Open · R128 · Hard · best of 5 · Sep 2, 2026, 4:50 PM UTC
Ignacio Buse vs. Marcos Giron — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · September 2, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Ignacio Buse goes up against Marcos Giron in the US Open first round. Ignacio Buse has won 5 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. Marcos Giron has dropped 4 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
Ignacio Buse simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Buse fractionally more likely to land the big points.
The numbers behind the pick
Our number vs the market
Maiden-123(55.1% Buse)
Market-149(59.8% Buse)
Sources: Market consensus (average across books). These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
Surface ratings
Hard rating
Ignacio Buse
1801
Marcos Giron
1731
Overall rating
Ignacio Buse
1906
Marcos Giron
1763
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Ignacio Buse
Marcos Giron
1st serve in
61.7%
62.8%
1st serve points won
68.3%
70.5%
2nd serve points won
48.9%
49.7%
Form
Ignacio Buse
7–3
Marcos Giron
3–7
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
Who is predicted to win Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron?
Maiden gives Ignacio Buse a 55% chance to beat Marcos Giron in the US Open first round on September 2, 2026.
How confident is the Ignacio Buse pick?
55% is a “Lean” tier pick. When we make a pick around 55%, picks in that range have won 65% of the time (190 so far). See the track record page for the full table.