Thursday's Jinan round of 16 pits Ilya Ivashka against Liam Draxl on hard. Liam Draxl comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Ilya Ivashka has won 5 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall.

Liam Draxl simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Draxl comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Draxl is exactly that — a lean.