Wednesday's Lisbon (Portugal) round of 16 pits Irene Burillo Escorihuela against Jessica Bouzas Maneiro on clay. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro has won 5 of the last 10. Irene Burillo Escorihuela has won 4 of the last 10.

The serve is where this match separates: Maneiro has been winning 59.6% of first-serve points to Escorihuela's 54.7%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Escorihuela comes in off a compressed schedule; Maneiro comes in off a compressed schedule. Escorihuela needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.