Thursday's Ningbo round of 16 pits Iva Jovic against Jasmine Paolini on hard. Iva Jovic has won 7 of the last 10. Jasmine Paolini has won 6 of the last 10.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Jovic is exactly that — a lean.