Curitiba · SF · Clay · best of 3 · Oct 3, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC
Ivan Justo Guido vs. Tomas Barrios Vera — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · October 3, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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Saturday's Curitiba semifinal pits Ivan Justo Guido against Tomas Barrios Vera on clay. Tomas Barrios Vera brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 3-7 across the last ten. Ivan Justo Guido brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Guido comes in off a compressed schedule; Vera comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Vera fractionally more likely to land the big points.
The numbers behind the pick
Win probability & fair price
Maiden-133(57.1% Vera)
Surface ratings
Clay rating
Ivan Justo Guido
1621
Tomas Barrios Vera
1659
Overall rating
Ivan Justo Guido
1623
Tomas Barrios Vera
1656
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Ivan Justo Guido
Tomas Barrios Vera
1st serve in
64.3%
64%
1st serve points won
63.1%
64.9%
2nd serve points won
47.4%
50.7%
Form
Ivan Justo Guido
6–4
Tomas Barrios Vera
3–7
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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Who is predicted to win Ivan Justo Guido vs Tomas Barrios Vera?
Maiden gives Tomas Barrios Vera a 57% chance to beat Ivan Justo Guido in the Curitiba semifinal on October 3, 2026.
How confident is the Tomas Barrios Vera pick?
57% is a “Lean” tier pick. When we make a pick around 57%, picks in that range have won 66% of the time (470 so far). See the track record page for the full table.