A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Jacob Fearnley goes up against Jan Kumstat in the Olbia round of 16. Jacob Fearnley comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Jan Kumstat has won 9 of the last 10.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Fearnley is exactly that — a lean.