Jacob Fearnley and Luca Nardi meet in the semifinal at Olbia on Saturday. Jacob Fearnley is rolling — 4 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play. Luca Nardi is rolling — 3 straight wins, 5 of 10 in recent play.
The serve is where this match separates: Fearnley has been winning 71.8% of first-serve points to Nardi's 67.9%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Fearnley comes in off a compressed schedule; Nardi comes in off a compressed schedule. Fearnley should have enough here, though Nardi has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
The numbers behind the pick
Serve
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Jacob Fearnley | Luca Nardi |
|---|
| 1st serve in | 61% | 63% |
| 1st serve points won | 71.8% | 67.9% |
| 2nd serve points won | 48.9% | 47.9% |
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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