US Open · R64 · Hard · best of 5 · Sep 2, 2026, 5:20 PM UTC
Jacob Fearnley vs. Tomas Martin Etcheverry — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · September 2, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Jacob Fearnley goes up against Tomas Martin Etcheverry in the US Open round of 64. Tomas Martin Etcheverry is 3-7 across recent matches. Jacob Fearnley comes in at 8 wins from the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Etcheverry is exactly that — a lean.
The numbers behind the pick
Our number vs the market
Maiden-119(54.3% Etcheverry)
Market-125(55.5% Etcheverry)
Sources: Market consensus (average across books). These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
Surface ratings
Hard rating
Jacob Fearnley
1745
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
1766
Overall rating
Jacob Fearnley
1836
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
1814
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Jacob Fearnley
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
1st serve in
60.7%
64.8%
1st serve points won
72%
71.2%
2nd serve points won
49%
51.1%
Form
Jacob Fearnley
8–2
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
3–7
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
Who is predicted to win Jacob Fearnley vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry?
Maiden gives Tomas Martin Etcheverry a 54% chance to beat Jacob Fearnley in the US Open round of 64 on September 2, 2026.
How confident is the Tomas Martin Etcheverry pick?
54% is a “Lean” tier pick. When we make a pick around 54%, picks in that range have won 52% of the time (201 so far). See the track record page for the full table.