Thursday's Cincinnati round of 16 pits Jaime Faria against Lorenzo Musetti on hard. Lorenzo Musetti is 7-3 across recent matches. Jaime Faria is rolling — 3 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.
Lorenzo Musetti simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Faria comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Musetti.