US Open · R128 · Hard · best of 5 · Aug 31, 2026, 5:15 PM UTC
James Duckworth vs. Matteo Arnaldi — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · August 31, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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James Duckworth and Matteo Arnaldi meet in the first round at US Open on Monday. James Duckworth has won 4 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. Matteo Arnaldi is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10).
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Duckworth fractionally more likely to land the big points.
The numbers behind the pick
Our number vs the market
Maiden-112(52.8% Duckworth)
Market+150(40.0% Duckworth)
Sources: . These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
Surface ratings
Hard rating
James Duckworth
1726
Matteo Arnaldi
1679
Overall rating
James Duckworth
1784
Matteo Arnaldi
1814
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
James Duckworth
Matteo Arnaldi
1st serve in
56.7%
58.4%
1st serve points won
72.3%
70%
2nd serve points won
50.3%
50.2%
Form
James Duckworth
7–3
Matteo Arnaldi
5–5
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
Who is predicted to win James Duckworth vs Matteo Arnaldi?
Maiden gives James Duckworth a 53% chance to beat Matteo Arnaldi in the US Open first round on August 31, 2026.
How confident is the James Duckworth pick?
53% is a “Lean” tier pick. When we make a pick around 53%, picks in that range have won 52% of the time (192 so far). See the track record page for the full table.