Estoril · R32 · Clay · best of 3 · Jul 21, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC · Cancelled
Jan Choinski vs. Jesper De Jong — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · July 21, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Jan Choinski goes up against Jesper De Jong in the Estoril round of 32. Jan Choinski is 6-4 across recent matches. Jesper De Jong comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Choinski is exactly that — a lean.
The numbers behind the pick
Our number vs the market
Maiden-139(58.1% Choinski)
Sources: . These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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Frequently asked questions
Who is predicted to win Jan Choinski vs Jesper De Jong?
Maiden gives Jan Choinski a 58% chance to beat Jesper De Jong in the Estoril round of 32 on July 21, 2026.
How confident is the Jan Choinski pick?
58% is a “Lean” tier pick. When we make a pick around 58%, picks in that range have won 67% of the time (242 so far). See the track record page for the full table.
What is the head-to-head record between Jan Choinski and Jesper De Jong?