Jannik Sinner and Juan Manuel Cerundolo meet in the round of 64 at French Open on Thursday. Jannik Sinner has won 9 of the last 10. Juan Manuel Cerundolo brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 4-6 across the last ten.

Nothing separates them historically — the head-to-head sits at 1-1. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Cerundolo — worth more than the overall number this week.

The serve is where this match separates: Sinner has been winning 72.3% of first-serve points to Cerundolo's 66.1%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Anything other than a Sinner win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.