Tuesday's Iasi round of 32 pits Jaqueline Cristian against Leolia Jeanjean on clay. Jaqueline Cristian limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Leolia Jeanjean has won 4 of the last 10.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Jaqueline Cristian simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Cristian fractionally more likely to land the big points.