Jasmine Paolini and Naomi Osaka meet in the round of 32 at Tokyo on Tuesday. Naomi Osaka is 7-3 across recent matches. Jasmine Paolini comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.

Osaka's 71.1% behind the first serve (against 60.2% for Paolini) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. The edge belongs to Osaka — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.