A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Jay Clarke goes up against Jonas Forejtek in the Biella round of 32. Jay Clarke has won 4 of the last 10. Jonas Forejtek limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Clarke is exactly that — a lean.